According to one analysis "the story of the 1998 election in Texas is:
Mainstream Democrats can win the independent vote in Texas and Democrats
can win where there are strong get-out-the-vote programs." For instance, in
the Congressional Districts in East Texas (CD's 1,2 and 9)the Democratic
percentage of the votes has increased every election since 1994 because
Democrats have learned how to do an effective GOTV effort in East Texas.
This year it was almost 60% compared to less then 55% for Democrats in 1994.
In the South Texas Counties, if John Sharp had gotten the same number of
votes as Democrats did on an average in 1994 he would have won the election
state-wide. But in South Texas the percent of voters actually voting
dropped from 37% in 1994 to only 30% this year. A GOTV effort would have
picked up 25000 votes.
Paul Hobby won the urban counties(Bexar, Dallas, Harris, Tarrent and
Travis) but the turn out was also down by 420,334 votes from those who
voted in 1994. With little of a GOTV effort Bexar dropped from a turnout
of 43% in 1994 to 27% this year. Dallas was down by 25%, Harris by 19%,
Tarrant by 24% and Travis by 23%.
The same was true in the five Counties that usally vote the strongest for
Democrats (El Paso, Hidalgo, Jefferson, Nueces and Galveston) the decrease
was 32000 votes.
So, this analysis says that the Democrats messed up by not funding a GOTV
effort in the Urban, South Texas and the 5 strongest Democratic counties.
The blame is probably somewhere in the middle. A stronger race from Mauro
would have gotten more interest in the election and more interest plus more
funds for a GOTV effort would have won for Sharp and Hobby.
George Strong
gstrong@political.com
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