The Democrat Leadership Council in a recent poll "found that 39 percent of all voters and a staggering 49 percent of key independent voters believe the Republicans are too conservative -- and 31 percent of all voters and 34 percent of independents say they are becoming more conservative. Voters are unhappy, as well, with the ethical conduct of the Republicans. Significant majorities believe both presidential adviser Karl Rove and former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay should resign."

But before Democrats start to measure the White House and Capital Hill for curtains they should stop and consider that the same poll found that "Democrats are drifting unacceptably left. Forty-six percent of all voters -- and 43 percent of independents -- see Democrats right now as too liberal. And 41 percent of all voters -- and 42 percent of independents -- see them as becoming more liberal." While the poll found that "Democrats hold a 7-point lead in the DLC-Penn survey in the generic vote for Congress and, significantly, a 20-point advantage among independents. When asked which party they thought would win the White House next time, regardless of their own preferences, voters chose the Democrats by a staggering 58 percent to 28 percent margin".

But don't celebrate yet according to this poll "Even with the lead in the generic vote for the House, however, Democrats still trail Republicans among key segments of the electorate -- such as married people with kids, middle-income whites, and white women".

How can Democrats lose married folks with kids and white women and expect to be a political force?Democrats must do more then criticize the President and the GOP Congress. It must have leaders that are respected and issues that make economic and political sense. We cannot let the Cindy Sheehan's become the face and spokesperson for the Democratic Party and it leaders. What we need is a more moderate approach to the issues facing the nation.

And Hillary Clinton should note that "Just 13 percent of all voters in the DLC-Penn survey -- and just 16 percent of critical independent voters -- said they would vote for a liberal Democrat for president".

Here is what Al From says we should do as he discusses this poll:

"Moment of Opportunity

Bush and the GOP have put the country on the wrong track. But Democrats can only make big gains with the right agenda.

By Al From

Public dissatisfaction with President Bush and the Republicans has opened the door for Democrats to make significant gains in Congress and the statehouses this year and to recapture the White House in 2008. Voters disagree with almost every major policy of the Bush administration and the Republican-controlled Congress. They think the country is on the wrong track, and they are looking for change. Republicans got into power under the banner of being moderate conservatives, and then they moved too far to the right.

But to take advantage of those opportunities, Democrats need to capture the vital center and bring an abrupt halt to what voters perceive as their party's drift to the left. That means they need to appeal to both liberal and moderate voters. To do that, Democrats must offer a positive agenda grounded in progressive Democratic principles, rather than simply highlighting their differences with Bush. And they need to be extremely careful to avoid inadvertently reinforcing their deficit on national security issues that played a large part in their 2002 and 2004 defeats.

Those are the principal conclusions drawn from a survey taken for the Democratic Leadership Council by Penn, Schoen and Berland and from a review of other recent polling data.

Overall, the political situation in America is more volatile than it has been in more than a decade. Just 25 percent of the voters Penn surveyed said they voted for the same party all the time. Fully 70 percent said they crossed party lines at least some of the time in casting their ballots.

There's no doubt Bush and the Republicans are in trouble. In the DLC-Penn Poll, just 34 percent of those surveyed said they believed the country is on the right track. In the Jan. 12, 2006, Gallup Poll, the president's job approval rating stood at 43 percent, down 10 percentage points from his post-election high in December 2004. Voters give the president low marks for his handling of the war in Iraq and the economy -- the two issues they see as the most important.

Moreover, Penn found that 39 percent of all voters and a staggering 49 percent of key independent voters believe the Republicans are too conservative -- and 31 percent of all voters and 34 percent of independents say they are becoming more conservative. Voters are unhappy, as well, with the ethical conduct of the Republicans. Significant majorities believe both presidential adviser Karl Rove and former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay should resign.

Against that backdrop, it is not surprising that Democrats hold a 7-point lead in the DLC-Penn survey in the generic vote for Congress and, significantly, a 20-point advantage among independents. When asked which party they thought would win the White House next time, regardless of their own preferences, voters chose the Democrats by a staggering 58 percent to 28 percent margin.

Even with the lead in the generic vote for the House, however, Democrats still trail Republicans among key segments of the electorate -- such as married people with kids, middle-income whites, and white women. The inability to be competitive among those groups hurt John Kerry significantly in 2004.

But the story of the last two elections is that voters in the center can switch their votes right up to the last minute. And if Republicans move more to the right and Democrats move more to the left, the voters in the center will sway back and forth. This means that the Democratic advantage -- while real today -- is not cast in concrete.

Most of the Democratic edge results from the decline in the president's approval rating -- and almost all of that is among Republicans (he's down 7 points with them since his December 2004 high) and independents (down 16 points). Those are voters from whom Democrats still have to earn support and Bush can win back with a small upturn in his fortunes. The Jan. 12, 2006, Gallup Poll indicated he may be beginning to do that. His 43 percent approval rating in that poll is up from 38 percent in late November 2005. That increase can be accounted for a by a 5-point gain among Republicans and a 6-point gain among independents. He actually lost one point among Democrats.

To secure their advantage, Democrats need to tell voters what they stand for. By 77 percent to 16 percent, the Americans Penn surveyed wanted the Democrats to present their own alternative agenda, not merely highlight their differences with the president.

That agenda must end the prevailing view among voters in the DLC-Penn Poll that Democrats are drifting unacceptably left. Forty-six percent of all voters -- and 43 percent of independents -- see Democrats right now as too liberal. And 41 percent of all voters -- and 42 percent of independents -- see them as becoming more liberal.

It is important for Democrats to understand that despite Bush's decline, America remains a moderate to conservative country -- particularly on economic and security issues. The harsh reality is this: Just 13 percent of all voters in the DLC-Penn survey -- and just 16 percent of critical independent voters -- said they would vote for a liberal Democrat for president.

The DLC-Penn survey found that 36 percent of all voters identified themselves as conservatives, 47 percent as moderates, and only 16 percent as liberals. Moreover, seven in 10 Democrats identified themselves as moderate (53 percent) or conservative (17 percent). Even among self-identified Democrats, just 27 percent said they were liberals. On economic issues, just 13 percent of all voters identified themselves as liberals; on security issues, just 14 percent; and on social issues, 24 percent.

While the parties are seen as moving toward the left and the right, the voters are moving toward the center. There are now more moderates and fewer conservatives and liberals than a quarter-century ago when Ronald Reagan was first elected president.

The challenge to Democrats is simply this: To make significant gains in Congress and win back the White House, they have to propose an agenda that convinces voters they will govern from the vital center.

Democrats can do that by giving voters progressive ideas for keeping their families safe, assuring them a chance to get ahead, helping them raise their kids in a difficult environment, and fixing a political system that seems increasingly remote from everyday life. In other words, the key for Democrats is to offer new and innovative ways to honor their first principles -- security, opportunity, responsibility, and community -- not to abandon their values.

In shaping alternative policies -- particularly on national security, terrorism, and Iraq -- Democrats have to be very careful to avoid reinforcing the negative stereotype that has cost them so much in the last two national elections.

Even with Bush's decline -- Democrats hold a 7-point lead on keeping the country prosperous and larger leads on other domestic issues -- the Republicans still hold the advantage on every national security issue Penn tested for the DLC: a 40-36 lead on which party can better keep the country safe; a 45-40 lead on which party can be more trusted on national security; and a 48-38 lead on which party can be more trusted to fight terrorism. Those GOP leads are double-digit in each case among married voters with kids, middle-income whites, and white women.

Despite the unpopularity of the war in Iraq -- voters disapproved of the war by 54 percent to 44 percent in the DLC-Penn survey -- Democratic leaders could be playing with political dynamite if they call for an immediate pullout of American troops. To be sure, in all polls we examined, the American people said they would like to see American troops come home, but they worry about the consequences of an immediate withdrawal.

According to the December 2005 New York Times/CBS News poll, voters believed by 35 percent to 22 percent that the United States is safer because of the war in Iraq, and by 40 percent to 8 percent, they believe the threat of terror in the United States would increase, not decrease, if troops were withdrawn now. Not surprisingly, under those circumstances, by 36 percent to 21 percent, voters in that same poll said they would be less, not more, likely to vote for a congressional candidate who advocates immediate withdrawal from Iraq.

By moving right, the Republicans have given Democrats the opportunity to recapture the vital center, to make gains in congressional and gubernatorial elections in 2006, and to recapture the White House in 2008. But that will not just happen automatically. Democrats need to make it happen by working aggressively to forge a coalition of core and swing voters -- liberals and moderates -- that is large enough to prevail.

Al From is founder and CEO of the Democratic Leadership Council." []

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