So the Democrats will win control of Congress by 40 votes and also take the U.S. Senate by a vote or two. Correct? I doubt it. I think John Kerry's stupid joke will cost the Dems a seat or two in the Senate and while Democrats may take the House it will be by just a few votes. Why?

First the President is getting his message out to his base and I think to Independents. "Don't trust the Democrats on fighting terrorism or on your taxes". Independents are for the most part better educated with high incomes then the average Republican voter. So they might just decide to vote once again for the GOP. And Kerry's joke did not help. After all for better or worse he is the face of the Democratic Party.

Secondly, the GOP does know how to get its vote out and make sure that they vote. Democrats try to do the same, but their voters are harder to get to the polls. And with all the comments about how well the Democrats are going to do more and more of Democratic voters will decide to stay home.

Third, the Mark Foley scandal peaked too early and most of the impact of his actions has disappeared. The other scandals Tom DeLay, etc have also disappeared from the front page. So, the theme of "throw the rascals out" has died down.

It is not all bad. Democrats controlling some of the action in the House of Representatives will make it difficult for the President and his party to ram through right wing legislation including a woman's right to choose.

But I think Kerry blew it for the Senate and that is too bad for us and the Senate.