While the primary elections of Iowa and New Hampshire as well as those held on Super Tuesday are often regarded as the most critical for presidential candidates’ success, the elections in Florida and Ohio are often unwarrantedly overlooked. These elections being held today, however, have the capacity to shift the entire dynamic of the Republican race. In fact, Florida and Ohio could very well push Rubio and Kasich out of the race for good, leaving just Cruz and Trump vying for the Party’s nomination.
Ohio, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina are all holding Republican primary elections today, and all but North Carolina are winner-take-all, meaning that the candidates will not split each state’s delegates proportionally but rather win all of them or none of them. This drives up the stakes of these elections, giving them substantial weight for the current primary race. Specifically, Rubio and Kasich must both win their home states in order to keep fighting for the nomination.
At this point, Florida does not look promising for Rubio. A Marist/NBC/Wall Street Journal poll depicts Trump ahead of Rubio by a double-digit margin, dominating the race with a 43% - 22% lead. Fox News reports that these lagging poll numbers are highly indicative of the fact that Rubio’s campaign “might soon come to an end.”
In Ohio, Kasich appears to be leading Trump by a slim 6% margin, maintaining 39% of the vote to Trump’s 33%. A Quinnipiac survey, however, finds that Trump and Kasich are locked head-to-head at 38%, which could mean bad news for Kasich’s campaign. The Ohio governor has said time and time again that he will win Ohio’s primary, however he has added that he will drop out of the presidential race if he does not.
The media will be covering today’s primary elections like the Kentucky Derby, given the importance that both Florida and Ohio hold for the fate of the Republican Party in 2016, and thus it will not be difficult to stay posted on the latest polling statistics.
Do you think today will bring about the downfall of Kasich and Rubio?