With a 79% chance of winning, Is Hillary practically guaranteed to take the White House in November?

30 June 2016   
With a 79% chance of winning, Is Hillary practically guaranteed to take the White House in November?

As she struggled to secure the Democratic nomination with Bernie Sanders’ momentum proving relentless and ferocious throughout the primary race, some pundits saw weakness in the former Secretary of State’s campaign and argued that, although some dismissed Trump outright, he would put up a real fight for the general election. Some polls even showed Trump ahead of Hillary at certain points, which served as a bragging point for the billionaire businessman and a headline for major news outlets. Despite those earlier polls and some pundits’ initial claims that Hillary was weakened by Bernie, the nation’s top political statistician and pollster sees a Trump presidency as nearly impossible.

Nate Silver is a political guru. He predicted 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 election and correctly predicted all 50 in 2012. He is regarded as THE pollster, and pundits swear by his data and interpretations thereof. Silver predicted yesterday that Hillary Clinton has a 79% chance at winning the White House this November. “She’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll,” Silver explained to ABC’s George Stephanopoulos.

Silver clarified that there is still plenty of time before voters head out to the polls in the Fall, meaning both campagins still “have a lot of room to grow,” however he followed up by explaining that no candidate has lost a lead this large in roughly 30 years.

When discussing how Trump was able to win the Republican nomination but still fall so far behind Hillary in his general election prediction, Silver explained that “Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”

Are you shocked that Hillary has a 79% chance of winning the White House?