Are you surprised that Trump is within four points of Clinton in national polling?

19 August 2016   
Are you surprised that Trump is within four points of Clinton in national polling?

The media depiction of the presidential race suggests that Hillary is leading by a landslide, leaving Trump with next to no chance at securing the White House this November. Now, this is not entirely unfounded, as Hillary leads in most national averages and in vital swing state polls. However, it should not escape us that some highly respected national polls find that Trump is within striking distance of Hillary. In fact, the latest Pew Research Center poll finds that Trump is within four percentage points of Hillary, the latter leading 41-37 in a four-way race including Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

This four-point lead represents a drop from Hillary’s numbers in this same survey taken back in June, where she led by nine points. It is crucial to take into account the fact that Jill Stein was not included in the June poll, which indicates that far-Left voters may prefer that third party option over the Democratic candidate.

When breaking down the poll by demographics, it is clear that a stark gender divide exists in this election cycle. According to Politico, “women registered to vote prefer Clinton by a 19-point margin, 49 percent to 30 percent. With men who are registered to vote, Trump holds a smaller, 12-point lead over Clinton, 45 percent to 33 percent.” There is also a major divide among education lines, as surveyed individuals with a college degree favor Clinton by 13 points, while Trump leads by five points among respondents with some or no college education.

There are also major diversity disparities in each candidate’s constituency. 87% of Trump voters are white, 5% are Hispanic, and a meager 1% are black. On Clinton’s side, however, only 59% of her supporters are white, 24% are black, and 10% are Hispanic.

With less than three months before Election Day, the fact that the media is portraying Trump as lagging into oblivion is really indicative of election news coverage problems in this country. Trump’s new campaign manager and chief executive may be able to affect the campaign for the better, appeal to a wider voter base, and shrink the gap even more than Trump already has. However, this is not to say that this will be an easy feat, seeing that Hillary’s ability to appeal to more moderate voters – especially those in swing states – far exceeds that of Trump.

Are you surprised that Trump is within four points of Hillary in this latest poll?