What should we make of Nate Silver’s most recent warning about Trump?

21 September 2016   
What should we make of Nate Silver’s most recent warning about Trump?

Pundits have suggested time and time again that Clinton will undoubtedly occupy the Oval Office following the November election, implying that Trump’s chances are dismal. Perhaps these politicos assume that Clinton’s plethora of experience makes her far more qualified to be president than her Republican rival, or perhaps they assume that, eventually, Trump’s bombastic temperament will unsettle enough of the population to take him out of the running. Well, what’s interesting is that the same thing was said of Trump during the primary races, which he won handedly. There are less than 50 days until election day, and pundits continue to spew this narrative that “Trump simply can’t win.” According to Nate Silver, the nation’s leading statistician and pollster, this assumption is fundamentally erroneous and inherently dangerous.

It was major news when Silver assigned Trump a 33% chance of winning several weeks ago. Now, however, that chance has jumped ten points, as Trump now has a 43% chance at victory, and Clinton has a 57% chance. Additionally, the electoral vote has narrowed substantially, as Clinton is predicted to secure roughly 281 of the count, while Trump secures 257. Silver, who took to Twitter to reveal these latest projections, also added his own two cents on the matter.

“Never seen otherwise-smart people in so much denial about something as they are about Trump's chances,” he wrote. He then likened the situation to Trump’s position in the Republican primaries and the media’s incorrect predictions regarding Brexit. Silver proceeded to admonish the media for creating this false narrative that Clinton is the clear favorite in the election. “Can you invent an alternate set of assumptions wherein Clinton is a heavy favorite? Sure. But that's despite the polls, not because of them.”

He offered a warning to those making unabashed assumptions that Clinton will magically skyrocket in the polls leading up to Election Day. “There are a lot of *implicit* and *unexamined* assumptions that the race will shift back to Clinton. That's dangerous.”

With this, however, let’s not forget that the debates are next week. Clinton was Secretary of State. She was a Senator for New York. Trump was a real estate developer. Clinton has far more debate experience than does Trump, which is leaving many Clinton supporters hopeful that she will crush the Republican on the debate stage and ultimately step way above him in the polls.

What do you think of Nate Silver’s warning? Is it justified?