Have Trump’s chances at winning dwindled to zero?

24 October 2016   
Have Trump’s chances at winning dwindled to zero?

Trump’s campaign has not caught a break over the past two weeks. First, there was the tape depicting Trump making lewd remarks about married women as well as boasting about sexually assaulting women. Then, it was the slew of sexual assault allegations made against the candidate, in which at least a dozen women have come forward to claim that Trump inappropriately touched them or kissed them without their consent. Most recently, national polls have depicted Hillary with a lead between 10 and 13 points ahead of Trump. Needless to say, this isn’t looking good for the Trump campaign.

Trump’s campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, even told the press that she acknowledges their current deficit, admitting that the campaign is certainly behind. Well, just how far behind are they?

The Washington Post breaks down the electoral math and finds that Trump has a near-zero chance at winning the election. Nevada, a state that had previously appeared to be a Trump stronghold, is now leaning Democrat. Clinton has led in the last six of seven major polls in the state, and the seventh depicted a tie. RealClearPolitics shows Hillary with an average 4% lead there, and with only 15 days until Election Day, it appears unlikely to shift.

In addition to Nevada, Utah also appears to be shifting. A state that was supposed to go red is now being shown as a “toss up,” due to the heavy influence that Independent candidate Evan McMullin has had on the race. McMullin, not even listed on every state ballot as a result of his late entry into the presidential race, is an advent Mormon, which draws substantial support in Utah. While it is unclear as to whether Hillary can win the state, as many pundits remain highly skeptical of such an outcome, it will be incredibly difficult for Trump to do so.

Texas. Yes, Texas. A state categorically red may shift blue this election, which will send shocks through the GOP base and its army of pundits and analysts. While previous Republican presidential candidates won the state by substantial margins, Trump is maintaining a mere 4% lead there. Leading experts claim that it will not be shocking to see Hillary pick up the state.

In addition to these three regions, Arizona and Georgia, historically red states, as well as North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida, purple areas, are likely to land in Clinton’s favor, meaning that her Electoral College math trumps Trump’s.

The report finds that Clinton maintains around 323 electoral votes that are either solidly in her favor or leaning in that direction. She only needs 270 to win. A 53-vote margin is a fairly safe lead, but the campaign is making every effort possible to ensure that it secures the White House next month, continuing to campaign in vital swing states.

Do you think Trump has any chance at winning?