Trump’s enthusiasm soars: is it over for Clinton?

1 November 2016   
Trump’s enthusiasm soars: is it over for Clinton?

Most pundits have argued that the re-opening of the federal investigation into Hillary Clinton’s email scandal will not affect her support as much as it will bolster Trump voters and undecided voters. Those already set upon voting Secretary Clinton into the White House will not change their minds, as most of them already have such negative predispositions toward Trump. However, Trump supporters will undoubtedly capitalize on the disclosure that Hillary may, once again, be in hot water with the FBI, mobilizing other voters to go to the polls and increasing in turnout themselves. Additionally, undecided voters may see this news as egregiously damning evidence against Clinton and check the box next to Donald Trump’s name in the polling booth as a result. While it is certainly not prudent to trust polls – especially national polls – as the end-all, be-all for the outcome of the election, a new poll shows an uptick in the enthusiasm for Trump’s candidacy, which could then contribute to an uptick in polling success in the states.

According to the latest Washington Post / ABC News poll, Trump is taking a substantial lead over Clinton with respect to voter enthusiasm. “By 53 to 43 percent, more Trump supporters say they are "very enthusiastic" about him, compared with Thursday and Friday when Trump's edge was negligible (53 percent vs. 51 percent).” While both candidates maintain far less support in this area than did their counterparts from four years ago (both in the 60% range), the drastic distinction between Trump and Hillary may have an impact on election outcome.

Concern for the present election at hand is a major factor in a voter’s decision to take the effort to go out to the polls. If enthusiasm is ticking up on Trump’s side, this may bring more of his potential supporters out to the polls and provide him with the advantage necessary to make his way into the Oval Office.

According to the Washington Post, “Clinton has a modest 54-41 percent edge among early voters in an average of the three most recent tracking poll waves, while Trump leads by a 50-39 percent margin among those looking to vote on Election Day.” As such, it is still far too close to tell who will walk away with the victory. Additionally, leading statistician Nate Silver’s estimates show that Trump has a more than 25% chance at winning the election, which far outpaces the estimates given by pundits in the mass media.

What do you think about this increase in enthusiasm for Trump? How will this affect the election?